Wednesday, June 1, 2011

CMHC Second Half 2011 Preview

Backed by economic growth, attractive mortgage rates, and overall confidence, housing sales and starts will continue to rise through this year and the next, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) second quarter outlook.

Backed by economic growth, attractive mortgage rates, and overall confidence, housing sales and starts will continue to rise through this year and the next, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) second quarter outlook. But prices will begin to moderate, possibly dropping from their current average by the end of the year and into 2012, the report said.

“Modest economic growth, in conjunction with relatively low mortgage rates, will continue to support demand for new homes in 2011 and 2012,” said CMHC Chief Economist Bob Dugan. “Nonetheless, we are expecting new and existing housing markets to fall in line with demographic fundamentals, as changes to mortgage rules take hold.”

CMHC forecasts about 179,500 housing units will be started in 2011, and then 207,500 units in 2012. The report also said existing home sales will go from 452,100 units in 2011 to reach 461,300 in 2012.

The average price in Canada will increase this year compared to last year, although more moderately than it already has, and will continue to remain at a similar average in 2012, said the report.

The average Multiple Listings Service (MLS) price for an existing home increased 6.7% from $342,441 in the fourth quarter of 2010 to reach $365,648 in the first quarter of this year. CMHC predicts it will likely slip back to $361,100 by the end of the year, and then rise up to $364,200 by the end of 2012.

from Canadian Real Estate Magazine

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